There were four more Kotei last weekend, and we have enough data to include three of them.
As a refresher, keep in mind that this includes all EE-legal tournaments, including the handful that happened before Kotei season started.
Although people will probably focus the most on Dragon/Crab/Mantis for winning Kotei over the weekend, the biggest positive mover looking at ability to make the cut was Scorpion. The biggest negative mover was Phoenix.
| Players | % of Field | Made Cut | Won | % Made Cut | Relative Chance of Making Cut | |
| Crab | 204 | 16.1% | 61 | 5 | 29.9% | 45.6% |
| Crane | 106 | 8.4% | 10 | 0 | 9.4% | -54.1% |
| Dragon | 129 | 10.2% | 28 | 5 | 21.7% | 5.7% |
| Lion | 153 | 12.1% | 38 | 3 | 24.8% | 21.0% |
| Mantis | 139 | 11.0% | 29 | 5 | 20.9% | 1.6% |
| Phoenix | 114 | 9.0% | 31 | 1 | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| Scorpion | 157 | 12.4% | 32 | 2 | 20.4% | -0.7% |
| Spider | 112 | 8.8% | 14 | 1 | 12.5% | -39.1% |
| Unicorn | 139 | 11.0% | 25 | 1 | 18.0% | -12.4% |
| Unaligned | 16 | 1.3% | 1 | 6.3% | ||
| 1269 | 269 | 20.5% | 23.6% |
Making the Cut % Rankings (the ranks aren’t that important, but people like lists instead of reading the whole table)
1) Crab – 30%
2) Phoenix – 27%
3) Lion – 25%
4) Dragon 22%
AVERAGE – 21%
5) Mantis – 21%
6) Scorpion – 20%
7) Unicorn – 18%
8 ) Spider – 13%
9) Crane – 9%
Another potentially useful bit of data, although there isn’t room for it in the usual chart, is what % of the field in the elims the various clans take up – basically, if you’re confident of making the elims, and want to focus on what you’ll face there, this might be handy info:
1) Crab – 23%
2) Lion – 14%
3) Scorpion – 12%
4) Phoenix – 12%
5) Mantis – 11%
6) Dragon – 10%
7) Unicorn – 9%
8 ) Spider – 5%
9) Crane – 4%
P.S. James, Justin – one of you want to e-mail me what the appropriate chi-squared calculations are? My serious math-fu is getting atrophied from years of disuse.
Wow, Crane is at the bottom again, go figure.
Hey there… So chi^2 eh? Presuming that you’re interested in which clans are getting better than expected numbers into the cut given the variables numbers in attendance? You have 9 clans (lets leave unaligned aside until more data is available eh? Like at least 5 making the cut), which can be grouped in two: numbers not making the cut and numbers making the cut. A chi^2 will tell you whether there is an overall significant difference there, but you’ll need to look at the “residuals” to see which clans are performing better than expected (presuming at least a 95% significance level here). If you have a stats package to help you here, I’d advise you save the “standardised adjusted residuals” and look for values greater than +-1.96. Hope that’s enough to help! GL
…Edit: One error in the above: It’s “standardised residuals” that you want not the adjusted ones…
Anyway, I’ve run the chi^2 test described about for you now. Only Crab are performing statistically better than expected (at making the cut) given the numbers in attendance. However, both Crane and Spider are performing significantly worse. For the remaining 6 Clans (leaving aside Unaligned), there isn’t a strong enough trend evident yet.
I don’t know which one of you SA guys are running these numbers, but I can email you the actual results if you want…
Cheers,
James
“I” (aka, Chris) do the numbers. You can e-mail me at chris@strangeassembly.com. I can hopefully work the calculations into my spreadsheet for use in future updates. Thanks.
It has been pointed out that I mis-entered some wins (e.g., increasing the Mantis wins by one instead of the Lion wins). This will be corrected for the next update.