Clan Tourney Success in Spring Kotei Season 2015 #9

Perhaps Medico is really persuasive about how to beat Mantis, or perhaps the universe is trying to teach us some sort of lesson about small data sets, but the 20F environment continues its rebalancing trend from last weekend, with most Clans moving towards the mean. While the prior part of the season was defined by the make the cut dominance of Phoenix/Mantis/Scorpion, the Scorpion in particular have lost their luster, with Crane (who previously had a good win rate, but not a great make the cut rate), Unicorn (who had a very poor start), and Lion all overtaking them. This is also the first time in a while that there were four ‘above average’ Clans, not just three.

With Unicorn and Lion wins (plus a Phoenix) over the weekend, Dragon is now the only Clan that has not won a Twenty Festivals Arc tournament (or any sort of post-20F storyline tournament).

Twenty Festivals Arc
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 68 8.8% 12 1 17.6% 0.91
Crane 91 11.8% 19 4 20.9% 1.08
Dragon 88 11.4% 11 12.5% 0.64
Lion 83 10.7% 16 1 19.3% 0.99
Mantis 98 12.7% 26 8 26.5% 1.37
Phoenix 93 12.0% 24 2 25.8% 1.33
Scorpion 80 10.3% 15 4 18.8% 0.97
Spider 97 12.5% 13 1 13.4% 0.69
Unicorn 76 9.8% 15 1 19.7% 1.02
774 151 22 19.5% 0.18

Making the Cut Rankings
1: Mantis – 27%
2: Phoenix – 26%
3: Crane – 21%
4: Unicorn – 20%
AVERAGE (per Clan) 19%
5: Lion – 19%
6: Scorpion – 19%
7: Crab – 18%
8: Spider – 13%
9: Dragon 13%

5 thoughts on “Clan Tourney Success in Spring Kotei Season 2015 #9

  1. Thank you for this.
    It would really help us people who weren’t briliiant with maths if you could do a final cut percentage that was out of 100%, please.

      1. If that means percentage (for each clan) out of the total that made the cut, then yes.

        For example, if 100 players made the cut (across all kotei) and 29 of them were Phoenix, then Phoenix’s total percentage of the cut would be 29%. If 50 players made the cut and 15 of them were Phoenix, then the percentage would be 30%

        For me the last column is purely annoying, you use percentages all the way through and then start using figures that have no indicator of what they mean. Is it variance from the norm? Meaning above and below average?

        1. I really appreciate your work and I do have a fair background in maths and can guess what the last column means, but should I be guessing?

          1. The final column is not what portion of the Clans in the cut is a particular Clan. That is something I track, but I don’t put it in these tables because there’s only so much room. The final column expresses how likely a given Clan is to make the cut, relative to the average chance of making the cut, normalized to 1. I have used a variety of methods to express that over the years. It used to be percentages, but I think that was a bit confusing because it was a percentage of a different sort of thing than the column immediately before it. Maybe I just need a perpetual footnote.

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