Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #9

Well, since AEG did the official numbers update, we now have the attendance figures we were missing from the start of this week, so now we’ve got your metagame statistics ready to go.

Ivory Edition
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab1209.1%25020.8%0.87
Crane22917.4%901539.3%1.63
Dragon14511.0%37125.5%1.06
Lion16412.5%34420.7%0.86
Mantis1269.6%22217.5%0.73
Phoenix1138.6%15013.3%0.55
Scorpion16012.2%44427.5%1.14
Spider1158.7%22019.1%0.79
Unicorn14310.9%47632.9%1.37
Total/Average1315100.0%3363225.6%0.27

And, because everyone keeps asking:

Ivory Edition (post Crane errata)
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab359.7%12034.3%1.19
Crane5715.7%17229.8%1.04
Dragon3810.5%11028.9%1.01
Lion4011.0%8120.0%0.70
Mantis369.9%10227.8%0.97
Phoenix308.3%3010.0%0.35
Scorpion5515.2%17130.9%1.08
Spider339.1%8024.2%0.84
Unicorn3810.5%20352.6%1.83
Total/Average362100.0%106929.3%0.25

And, to wrap things up, here are the projections for the storyline results as we officially move into the second half of Kotei season:

ClanPlayersAwardsTotalProjected
Crab12047167329
Crane229263492969
Dragon14556201396
Lion16481245482
Mantis12648174343
Phoenix11324137270
Scorpion16092252496
Spider11548163321
Unicorn143109252496

Noting that the projections are really simplistic, and that we know the first few weeks of Kotei season had really depressed attendance, I think we’re looking at Lion, Scorpion, and Unicorn (and Crane, of course) getting the 500 point mark, unless they turn out to be really crushed by The Coming Storm. I am, personally, saddened that the Dragon look unlikely to get there. We’ve ended up quite a bit short of my pre-Kotei estimates, because the attendance overall has been far lower than those estimates were using.

2 thoughts on “Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #9

  1. The Total/Average numbers of the “Relative Chance of Making Cut” don’t appear to be the average of the numbers above it. For example, in the post-Crane errata table, the average Relative Cut number is 0.25, but a simple sum of those numbers divided by 9 would be 1.001 (it’s 1 for the pre-errata table). What does that number mean?

    1. Stupid label (it’s in there because having empty cells is what causes problems for easy transfer of the spreadsheet into WordPress). That figure is the average variance from 1, because that column is normalized so that 1 is average. So the bigger that number is the further the clans tend to be from the mean.

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