Well, since AEG did the official numbers update, we now have the attendance figures we were missing from the start of this week, so now we’ve got your metagame statistics ready to go.
| Ivory Edition | ||||||
| Clan | Players | % of Field | Made Cut | Won | % Made Cut | Relative Chance of Making Cut |
| Crab | 120 | 9.1% | 25 | 0 | 20.8% | 0.87 |
| Crane | 229 | 17.4% | 90 | 15 | 39.3% | 1.63 |
| Dragon | 145 | 11.0% | 37 | 1 | 25.5% | 1.06 |
| Lion | 164 | 12.5% | 34 | 4 | 20.7% | 0.86 |
| Mantis | 126 | 9.6% | 22 | 2 | 17.5% | 0.73 |
| Phoenix | 113 | 8.6% | 15 | 0 | 13.3% | 0.55 |
| Scorpion | 160 | 12.2% | 44 | 4 | 27.5% | 1.14 |
| Spider | 115 | 8.7% | 22 | 0 | 19.1% | 0.79 |
| Unicorn | 143 | 10.9% | 47 | 6 | 32.9% | 1.37 |
| Total/Average | 1315 | 100.0% | 336 | 32 | 25.6% | 0.27 |
And, because everyone keeps asking:
| Ivory Edition (post Crane errata) | ||||||
| Clan | Players | % of Field | Made Cut | Won | % Made Cut | Relative Chance of Making Cut |
| Crab | 35 | 9.7% | 12 | 0 | 34.3% | 1.19 |
| Crane | 57 | 15.7% | 17 | 2 | 29.8% | 1.04 |
| Dragon | 38 | 10.5% | 11 | 0 | 28.9% | 1.01 |
| Lion | 40 | 11.0% | 8 | 1 | 20.0% | 0.70 |
| Mantis | 36 | 9.9% | 10 | 2 | 27.8% | 0.97 |
| Phoenix | 30 | 8.3% | 3 | 0 | 10.0% | 0.35 |
| Scorpion | 55 | 15.2% | 17 | 1 | 30.9% | 1.08 |
| Spider | 33 | 9.1% | 8 | 0 | 24.2% | 0.84 |
| Unicorn | 38 | 10.5% | 20 | 3 | 52.6% | 1.83 |
| Total/Average | 362 | 100.0% | 106 | 9 | 29.3% | 0.25 |
And, to wrap things up, here are the projections for the storyline results as we officially move into the second half of Kotei season:
| Clan | Players | Awards | Total | Projected |
| Crab | 120 | 47 | 167 | 329 |
| Crane | 229 | 263 | 492 | 969 |
| Dragon | 145 | 56 | 201 | 396 |
| Lion | 164 | 81 | 245 | 482 |
| Mantis | 126 | 48 | 174 | 343 |
| Phoenix | 113 | 24 | 137 | 270 |
| Scorpion | 160 | 92 | 252 | 496 |
| Spider | 115 | 48 | 163 | 321 |
| Unicorn | 143 | 109 | 252 | 496 |
Noting that the projections are really simplistic, and that we know the first few weeks of Kotei season had really depressed attendance, I think we’re looking at Lion, Scorpion, and Unicorn (and Crane, of course) getting the 500 point mark, unless they turn out to be really crushed by The Coming Storm. I am, personally, saddened that the Dragon look unlikely to get there. We’ve ended up quite a bit short of my pre-Kotei estimates, because the attendance overall has been far lower than those estimates were using.
The Total/Average numbers of the “Relative Chance of Making Cut” don’t appear to be the average of the numbers above it. For example, in the post-Crane errata table, the average Relative Cut number is 0.25, but a simple sum of those numbers divided by 9 would be 1.001 (it’s 1 for the pre-errata table). What does that number mean?
Stupid label (it’s in there because having empty cells is what causes problems for easy transfer of the spreadsheet into WordPress). That figure is the average variance from 1, because that column is normalized so that 1 is average. So the bigger that number is the further the clans tend to be from the mean.