Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #13

Four Kotei this weekend, but a relatively low number of new data points for the number of Kotei, as three of those four had fairly low turnout (including at least one with attendance that was drastically down from its prior year showings). The four Kotei were won by Crane, Scorpion and Unicorn (twice), and I am guessing that your responses to that range from “well, duh” to “shouldn’t one of those have been Mantis?” Those clans are also the four that are above average at making the cut.

Here’s the table for after the Crane errata:

Ivory Edition (post Crane errata)
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab989.4%25125.5%0.96
Crane15614.9%54434.6%1.30
Dragon11110.6%28025.2%0.95
Lion11511.0%22219.1%0.72
Mantis10610.1%30628.3%1.06
Phoenix10610.1%22120.8%0.78
Scorpion13112.5%37228.2%1.06
Spider989.4%15015.3%0.57
Unicorn12612.0%541042.9%1.61
Total/Average1047100.0%2872627.4%0.23

And here’s for the whole Kotei season:

Ivory Edition
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab1839.2%38120.8%0.84
Crane32816.4%1271738.7%1.57
Dragon21810.9%54124.8%1.00
Lion23912.0%48520.1%0.81
Mantis1969.8%42621.4%0.87
Phoenix1899.5%34118.0%0.73
Scorpion23611.8%64527.1%1.10
Spider1809.0%29016.1%0.65
Unicorn23111.6%811335.1%1.42
Total/Average2000100.0%5174925.9%0.24

Of course, there’s also the Renewal storyline event, where we don’t see a terrible lot of movement from week to week anymore, now that we’re almost at 50 completed Kotei out of 62 or 63 (these projections still assume 63, but at this point I’m guessing that the Moscow Kotei just isn’t happening, which will shave a few points off of everyone).

ClanPlayersAwardsTotalProjected
Crab18370253325
Crane328323651837
Dragon21884302388
Lion239110349449
Mantis19699295379
Phoenix18951240309
Scorpion236149385495
Spider18068248319
Unicorn231192423544

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