Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #12

Hey, look, we’ve got all of the pertinent data by the end of the weekend (OK, OK, we’re technically missing the clans of the three players from the Budapest Kotei who earned T8 points but did not make the cut, but that’s pretty minor and only affects the storyline chart at the bottom of the post, not the actual play statistics)! Feels like it’s been a while.

The three wins this weekend for Crab picking up its first, Mantis Nonhuman Dueling picking up its 6th or so, and Crane adding to their total (Unicorn made the cut a bunch, but did not pick up any wins). Spider is now the only Clan to remain winless throughout the season (although, statistically, there is minimal difference between the zero wins for Spider and the one win for Crab/Dragon/Phoenix; their weakness shows up more in the make the cut figures).

Note that we are now to the point where there are as many players/data points in the post-errata environment as there were in the pre-errata environment. So the Ivory Edition table is about half-and-half, and the post-errata table is as statistically significant as the overall table was when the errata hit.

Ivory Edition
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab1729.2%37121.5%0.87
Crane30216.1%1161638.4%1.55
Dragon20210.8%51125.2%1.02
Lion22612.1%47520.8%0.84
Mantis18710.0%39620.9%0.84
Phoenix1809.6%32117.8%0.72
Scorpion22211.8%60427.0%1.09
Spider1678.9%28016.8%0.68
Unicorn21711.6%761135.0%1.41
Total/Average1875100.0%4864525.9%0.24

It is interesting to consider how Mantis might have done this season if Will’s Ogre/Nonhuman Dueling deck had come out earlier, as Abbott’s creation has lifted Mantis from zero to hero.

Ivory Edition (post Crane errata)
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab879.4%24127.6%1.02
Crane13014.1%43333.1%1.22
Dragon9510.3%25026.3%0.97
Lion10211.1%21220.6%0.76
Mantis9710.5%27627.8%1.02
Phoenix9710.5%20120.6%0.76
Scorpion11712.7%33128.2%1.04
Spider859.2%14016.5%0.61
Unicorn11212.1%49843.8%1.61
Total/Average922100.0%2562227.8%0.20

Make the Cut Ranks (post-errata environment)
1 ) Unicorn – 44%
2 ) Crane – 33%
3 ) Scorpion – 28%
4 ) Mantis – 28%
5 ) Crab – 28%
AVERAGE (per Clan) – 27%
6 ) Dragon – 26%
7 ) Phoenix – 21% (they are slightly ahead of Lion if you take it out to more decimal places)
8 ) Lion – 21%
9 ) Spider – 17%

Renewal Storyline Projections:

ClanPlayersAwardsTotalProjected
Crab17269241337
Crane302297599839
Dragon20281283396
Lion226107333466
Mantis18792279391
Phoenix18047227318
Scorpion222129351491
Spider16765232325
Unicorn217180397556

With 45 Kotei in the books, we’re beginning to see the projections and reality close in on each other. With Crane no longer winning as an insane rate, their projection is still probably higher than reality (because the projection is simplistic, the pre-errata performance holds as much weight as the post-errata performance, although the former is pretty unhelpful) – they are still in the running for the 750 point prize, but it is no sure thing. The Unicorn, on the other hand, have an even better chance of making their 500-point prize than the table makes it look. We are, unfortunately, probably looking at a result where only 3 Clans even achieve the 500-point mark (I anticipate that Scorpion will make it, but Lion will not). Even if The Coming Storm really pumps up one of the lower Clans, they look to be too low and the TCS-legal part of Kotei season too short for Clans to make up 100-point gaps. The drag continues to be attendance – the overall attendance will be higher than last year’s Kotei (despite the painfully low attendance at the Kotei for the first few weeks of this season), but it is still far lower than we had during Emperor arc’s first Kotei season.

3 thoughts on “Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #12

  1. On the contrary, I think anyone concerned about the strength of Mantis Monsters in their particular field (and in particular their ability to deal with the deck), who is not also reliant on Fudo/Fallen/Shadowlands cards, should run two copies of Purge specifically as meta for the deck. Even if it is a “bad card,” if people are going to run the tainty decks based on their strength, others can and should run countermeasures where they can.

    Alternative solution #1: run enough high focus value cards that you can focus out and win.
    Alternative solution #2: Kharmic Strike is a thing, I hear.

  2. I don’t think that Purge is the correct answer, as it is a dead draw in too many other matchups against top-tier decks. You’re better off running more general purpose cards that counter what the deck does. Watch Commander/Ominous Armor are fantastic at soaking the WE/CoaaT that the dueling version likes to throw out. They also do work against the non-dueling version that runs 2-3 Planteds/Deliberations/Holding Cells, as Ominous counters all but the Holding Cells. Honestly, if I were looking for a tech meta card against a lot of the field, I’d run 1-2 Investigations, as there is a non-insignificant amount of Planted/Holding Cells/Shiho/Nitoshi/other odds and ends in the field right now.

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