Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #9

Well, since AEG did the official numbers update, we now have the attendance figures we were missing from the start of this week, so now we’ve got your metagame statistics ready to go.

Ivory Edition
Clan Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 120 9.1% 25 0 20.8% 0.87
Crane 229 17.4% 90 15 39.3% 1.63
Dragon 145 11.0% 37 1 25.5% 1.06
Lion 164 12.5% 34 4 20.7% 0.86
Mantis 126 9.6% 22 2 17.5% 0.73
Phoenix 113 8.6% 15 0 13.3% 0.55
Scorpion 160 12.2% 44 4 27.5% 1.14
Spider 115 8.7% 22 0 19.1% 0.79
Unicorn 143 10.9% 47 6 32.9% 1.37
Total/Average 1315 100.0% 336 32 25.6% 0.27

And, because everyone keeps asking:

Ivory Edition (post Crane errata)
Clan Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 35 9.7% 12 0 34.3% 1.19
Crane 57 15.7% 17 2 29.8% 1.04
Dragon 38 10.5% 11 0 28.9% 1.01
Lion 40 11.0% 8 1 20.0% 0.70
Mantis 36 9.9% 10 2 27.8% 0.97
Phoenix 30 8.3% 3 0 10.0% 0.35
Scorpion 55 15.2% 17 1 30.9% 1.08
Spider 33 9.1% 8 0 24.2% 0.84
Unicorn 38 10.5% 20 3 52.6% 1.83
Total/Average 362 100.0% 106 9 29.3% 0.25

And, to wrap things up, here are the projections for the storyline results as we officially move into the second half of Kotei season:

Clan Players Awards Total Projected
Crab 120 47 167 329
Crane 229 263 492 969
Dragon 145 56 201 396
Lion 164 81 245 482
Mantis 126 48 174 343
Phoenix 113 24 137 270
Scorpion 160 92 252 496
Spider 115 48 163 321
Unicorn 143 109 252 496

Noting that the projections are really simplistic, and that we know the first few weeks of Kotei season had really depressed attendance, I think we’re looking at Lion, Scorpion, and Unicorn (and Crane, of course) getting the 500 point mark, unless they turn out to be really crushed by The Coming Storm. I am, personally, saddened that the Dragon look unlikely to get there. We’ve ended up quite a bit short of my pre-Kotei estimates, because the attendance overall has been far lower than those estimates were using.

2 thoughts on “Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #9

  1. The Total/Average numbers of the “Relative Chance of Making Cut” don’t appear to be the average of the numbers above it. For example, in the post-Crane errata table, the average Relative Cut number is 0.25, but a simple sum of those numbers divided by 9 would be 1.001 (it’s 1 for the pre-errata table). What does that number mean?

    1. Stupid label (it’s in there because having empty cells is what causes problems for easy transfer of the spreadsheet into WordPress). That figure is the average variance from 1, because that column is normalized so that 1 is average. So the bigger that number is the further the clans tend to be from the mean.

Leave a Reply