Kotei 2012/Embers of War Meta-Game Update #5

We are now fully up to date on the Embers of War environment, including all data from all three Kotei last weekend.  Crab and Unicorn have (relatively speaking) come back to earth (with Lion taking the lead), Phoenix have pulled up, and we’ve already had eight Clans win Kotei – pretty balanced so far (although Crane players are probably still not thrilled).

Embers of War Environment
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Chi-Square Standard Residual
Crab 131 12.6% 32 2 24.4% 0.95
Crane 89 8.5% 13 14.6% -1.26
Dragon 110 10.6% 22 2 20.0% -0.15
Lion 116 11.1% 31 2 26.7% 1.44
Mantis 119 11.4% 27 2 22.7% 0.49
Phoenix 103 9.9% 17 2 16.5% -0.93
Scorpion 136 13.1% 20 3 14.7% -1.53
Spider 103 9.9% 21 1 20.4% -0.06
Unicorn 100 9.6% 25 3 25.0% 0.96
Unaligned 35 3.4% 6 17.1%
1042 214 20.6% 2.98

Make the Cut Ranks
1) Lion 27%
2) Unicorn – 25%
3) Crab – 24%
4) Mantis – 23%
AVERAGE – 21%
5) Spider – 20%
6) Dragon 20%
6a) Unaligned – 17%
7) Phoenix – 17%
8 ) Scorpion – 15%
9) Crane – 15%

11 thoughts on “Kotei 2012/Embers of War Meta-Game Update #5

  1. You’re fooling yourself if you think Spider players are happy right now. Two wins, one at the start of the arc when folks were figuring things out, and one win at a very small Kotei.

    None of that indicates Spider is anything but a joke right now.

    1. This is a post that’s specifically about the Embers of War environment, and that makes no affirmative assertions about the Spider players’ sentiment at all (I suppose it implicitly indicates that everyone but Crane should be OK with life). But you seem to feel obliged to post here complaining about how Spider were doing in a format that doesn’t exist anymore. In this format, Spider are doing OK at making the cut (the most important data point, IMHO), and actually have a win. That’s not great, but it’s not bad.

      The EoW environment so far has been substantially more balanced than the EE environment was (including a substantial improvement in Spider’s performance). I think that’s a good thing, and so I wanted to convey that in my post.

      Now, I can’t make you be happy, or content, or not miserable, or whatever emotional state you’re in. That’s up to you. But it’s not my fault, or the fault of the data, if you and/or some other Spider players choose to live in the past, conflate two sets of data, and continue griping and being miserable as if Spider were as bad now as they were pre-EoW.

    2. Spider’s not a joke. Anyone facing down a good Goju deck can attest to that. They may not be at the top of the heap, but few if any sitting across from them is thinking “easy win.”

    1. Short version is that it is a measure of how far from perfectly balanced that particular Clan is. Further from zero = further from balanced. It is statistically significant at plus or minus 1.94 for the clans (it has to his 3.94 for the environment as a whole, due to the different number of degrees of freedom).

  2. Thats’ a bit of a rude statement to make, they’ve worked hard for their wins. We all have, I play scorpion and I’m happy with what we’ve done, but I know a lot of spider player’s and they have been hard at work online and in their forums trying to figure out a way to make it. I for one and very happy they’ve made it.

  3. The number of players playing Crane seems to have dropped off, and Scorpion’s numbers has jumped up… Defectors? 😉

    1. Crane turnout is almost identical to what it was in the straight EE environment – it’s been bad from the get-go. Scorpion barely budge up to (it has been high from the start).

      Changes in turnout from EE to EoW are listed below (note that the starting figures are in percentages, so a 1% change might signify going from 11 to 12%).

      Crab -1.5%
      Crane 0.0%
      Dragon -0.4%
      Lion -1.4%
      Mantis +1.3%
      Phoenix -0.8%
      Scorpion +0.1%
      Spider +1.2%
      Unicorn -0.4%
      Unaligned +2%

      1. So if I understand this well, Crane is just as bad as it used to be and there has been zero change to how weak they were from EE to EoW. Crane players have not reacted to this by deserting more either, but neither have they come back. I am guilty of the same, tbh, while there are economic and practical issues involved, I am not very motivated to play Crane in the current environment…

        1. Basically. The only difference is that the CSSR is lower because there are fewer data points. Although this makes me realize that the CSSR is not very useful after all because the fluctuations due to statistical significance mean it can’t be compared as a measure of balance from environment to environment. I have have identical percentages of everything in environments of different sizes, and the CSSR would end up being different. Argh! Back to the drawing board.

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