Clan Tourney Success in Spring Kotei Season 2015 #7

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And now, back to your regularly scheduled statistics …

I know what you’re most interested in, so let’s jump right to the Mantis. There were two 20F Arc tournaments last weekend. Mantis won both, which makes 7-for-15. Their relative chance of making the cut has also gone up a bit, from 1.54 to 1.63 (the Phoenix are still ahead, at 1.65).

The biggest change in rate of making the cut was the Scorpion, who dropped from 1.4 to 1.28 (they remain firmly entrenched in third, since the next-highest is Crane at 0.93). Because the Scorpion went down, the overall “imbalance” figure for the environment tweaked down as well.

There’s been a lot of call for some sort of nerf to be made to the Mantis. Last year, the Crane got a bit out of hand and needed a nerf – at the time I commented that this was unfortunate, as Ivory Crane Scouts was basically the most fun/”fair” broken deck that I can recall. This year, I have not advocated for some sort of nerf, for a couple of reasons. One, because the Mantis just haven’t gotten as dominant as the Crane. Two, because the Crane were not only dominant, they were singularly dominant in a way that Mantis are not, with both Phoenix and Scorpion putting up high rates of making the cut (the Phoenix are still well above where I’d like to see relative rates of making the cut, and the Scorpion only just dipped back down into what I think of as “successful enough” balance levels). And if you whack Mantis, does Phoenix (and/or Scorpion, or something else) just rise up even worse?

But it has been asked where exactly did the Crane sit when they decision was made to nerf them last year? Conveniently enough, I did a stat update on April 7, 2014, the day before the nerf was announced, so I can tell you that they had won 7 out of 15 Kotei (well, isn’t that a familiar figure) and their relative chance of making the cut was 2.03 (way, way higher than Mantis are now). After one more weekend post-announcement, the Crane won 6 of 8 Kotei to bring their total to 13 of 23, with a 1.93 relative chance of making the cut.


20F Arc
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 43 8.7% 6 1 14.0% 0.71
Crane 55 11.1% 10 2 18.2% 0.93
Dragon 57 11.5% 6 10.5% 0.54
Lion 51 10.3% 9 17.6% 0.90
Mantis 66 13.3% 21 7 31.8% 1.63
Phoenix 59 11.9% 19 1 32.2% 1.65
Scorpion 48 9.7% 12 3 25.0% 1.28
Spider 63 12.7% 6 1 9.5% 0.49
Unicorn 53 10.7% 9 17.0% 0.87
495 98 15 19.8% 0.35

Make the Cut Rankings
1: Phoenix – 32%
2: Mantis – 32%
3: Scorpion – 25%
AVERAGE (per Clan) – 20%
4: Crane – 18%
5: Lion – 18%
6: Unicorn – 17%
7: Crab – 14%
8: Dragon – 11%
9: Spider – 10%

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