Clan Tourney Success in the Fall Tournament Season #1

Well, it’s been a while since I last did one of these. Since no clan data was reported out of GenCon (alas, I did not scrounge copies of Round 1 pairings from the tournaments), our data analysis of The Coming Storm basically ended with Kotei season. But now there’s a new expansion (A Line in the Sand), and Worlds was gracious enough to post some data (we also have the Dark Oracle of Air tournament from Argentina in there). This includes both the main and second chance events (unlike GenCon, the second chance at Worlds was Arc, not Strict), but does not at the moment include the three grinders (we have participation data for the grinders, and names of folks who qualified off the grinders, but no clans for the qualifiers).

Note that without the grinders this is still a pretty small data set. And it’s almost all one particular weekend and place’s metagame, so I imagine folks will have their thoughts on “Europe v. the World” as far as L5R deck construction and play style goes, but that is beyond what the data speaks to. But I’m pretty pumped to actually have some data, so here we go:

A Line in the Sand
ClanPlayers% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab116.8%2118.2%0.81
Crane2817.4%5017.9%0.80
Dragon2314.3%6026.1%1.16
Lion1710.6%7041.2%1.84
Mantis138.1%3023.1%1.03
Phoenix2012.4%105.0%0.22
Scorpion159.3%2113.3%0.60
Spider159.3%3020.0%0.89
Unicorn1911.8%7136.8%1.65
Total/Average161100.0%36322.4%0.37

Make the Cuts Ranks

1 ) Lion – 41%
2 ) Unicorn – 37%
3 ) Dragon – 26%
4 ) Mantis – 23%
AVERAGE (per Clan) – 22%
5 ) Spider – 20%
6 ) Crab – 18%
7 ) Crane – 18%
8 ) Scorpion – 13%
9 ) Phoenix – 5%

There are a few positive things in here. First, of the three bad Clans so far this arc (Phoenix, Spider, Crab), two of them actually showed some life. Crab and Spider were not in the pits at making the cut, Crab won the Second Chance event, and Spider got second in the main event. While their overall showings were far from amazing, this is hopefully an indicator that ALitS has brought those two out of the total dumps. Phoenix … sorry guys.

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