Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #8

Only two Kotei this weekend, and both of them on the small side, so the data hasn’t moved too terribly much since last week. So I’ll use that lack of data as my excuse for not including a specific post-errata table yet, although really it’s just as much because a recent update to WordPress broke its ability to past tables directly from a spreadsheet program, which makes each one I throw in more of a pain. After a bit of a post-errata hot start, Crane are now below average since the hammer fell. Unicorn doing really well (making the cut better than Crane was doing, pre-errata; just not winning all of their games in the elims after that). Crab and Mantis up quite a bit. Dragon continue to be unable to convert making the cut into winning tournaments.

Ivory Edition
Players% of FieldMade CutWon% Made CutRelative Chance of Making Cut
Crab1109.1%22020.0%0.86
Crane21517.7%841539.1%1.69
Dragon13411.0%34125.4%1.09
Lion15412.7%31420.1%0.87
Mantis1169.6%19116.4%0.71
Phoenix1088.9%14013.0%0.56
Scorpion14311.8%37425.9%1.12
Spider1018.3%18017.8%0.77
Unicorn13210.9%41531.1%1.34
121330024.7%0.27

Make the Cut Rankings (full Ivory)
1 ) Crane – 39%
2 ) Unicorn – 31%
3 ) Scorpion – 26%
4 ) Dragon – 25%
AVERAGE (per clan) – 23%
5 ) Lion – 20%
6 ) Crab – 20%
7 ) Spider – 18%
8 ) Mantis – 16%
9 ) Phoenix – 13%

And here’s the estimated current standings (things known to be missing include some of the T8 players and one of the honor winners) and the projections for the Renewal results (as always, these are just straightforward based on results, no adjustments for things like expected size of past and future Kotei).

ClanPlayersAwardsTotalProjected
Crab11042152319
Crane215253456958
Dragon13455189397
Lion15479233489
Mantis11632147309
Phoenix10824132277
Scorpion14389232487
Spider10139140294
Unicorn13297229481

One thing you may note is that pretty much everybody went down. Small Kotei will do that, because so many of the potential points are from attendance.

5 thoughts on “Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #8

    1. Make the Cut rates for post-errata: Crab 36%, Crane 26%, Dragon 30%, Lion 17%, Mantis 27%, Phoenix 8%, Scorpion 26%, Spider 21%, Unicorn 52%. Average rate of making the cut in this time frame is 27%. Unicorn post-errata relative chance of making cut is 1.93, the pre-errata Crane number was 1.92.

  1. I’d wager that Unicorn being “busted” is for the same reason that Crane was: their SH is essentially doing what Crane’s was doing with the Akagi Sensei, both in terms of gold production and movement. The only difference is that Unicorn don’t go first as much. Which might explain why they are not as good after making the cut.

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