Sorry we’re a little late this week, but I’m back from vacation so I thought I’d get you folks those stats. There were five Kotei last weekend, but only full data from four so far.
Forgotten Temple decks continue to perform meaningfully well, so I’ll have to consider what to do with them, but for now their data isn’t included in the larger averaging/chi-squared figures.
Despite Unicorn’s excellent performance, their “make the cut” rate figure is not yet statistically significant – it’s slightly smaller, but also there are just many fewer Unicorn players to accumulate data points.
| Embers of War Environment | ||||||
| Players | % of Field | Made Cut | Won | % Made Cut | Chi-Square Standard Residual | |
| Crab | 86 | 14.3% | 26 | 1 | 30.2% | 2.06 |
| Crane | 49 | 8.1% | 8 | 16.3% | -0.61 | |
| Dragon | 63 | 10.4% | 9 | 2 | 14.3% | -1.05 |
| Lion | 66 | 10.9% | 15 | 2 | 22.7% | 0.45 |
| Mantis | 67 | 11.1% | 15 | 1 | 22.4% | 0.39 |
| Phoenix | 64 | 10.6% | 7 | 10.9% | -1.65 | |
| Scorpion | 75 | 12.4% | 10 | 2 | 13.3% | -1.33 |
| Spider | 58 | 9.6% | 12 | 20.7% | 0.08 | |
| Unicorn | 55 | 9.1% | 16 | 3 | 29.1% | 1.46 |
| Unaligned | 20 | 3.3% | 5 | 25.0% | ||
| 603 | 123 | 20.0% | 3.58 | |||
Make the Cut % Standings
1) Crab – 30%
2) Unicorn – 29%
2a) Unaligned – 25%
4) Lion – 23%
5) Mantis – 22%
6) Spider – 21%
AVERAGE – 20%
7) Crane – 16%
8 ) Dragon – 14%
9) Phoenix – 11%
Dragon and Scorpion not making the cut, but winning?!?! A lot of bad Dragon/Scorpion decks out there or something?
Probably more of a question of the relative randomness of Kotei wins (especially with only a small number of tournies). For example, the two Dragon ones are from a small (20+ player) Kotei and Greg Wong, who’s just really good. Maybe people will be able to use Greg’s deck to get some more Dragon wins, but it usually doesn’t work out that way (because Greg makes distinctive decks that frequently no one else can manage to win with).
Mantis should have two wins up there. Aldershot and Anchorage.
Good catch. That’s an artifact of how late the Anchorage Kotei finished – there wasn’t a winner when I added that data in, and then I forgot to add the winner later. It’ll be included in the next update.