With some sort of potential nerf/ban/errata hanging over Crane (note the lovely picture of Akagi in those posts), a lot of eyes this weekend were focused on whether Crane could continue its dominance at making the cut and at locking up Kotei wins. On the other end, although I don’t see it talked about much, I was personally hoping to see some improved results for the Crab, who have been largely cut out of the elimination rounds this Kotei season.
So, on the Crane front, there was a reduction in performance on both fronts, with the Crane only picking up one of three Kotei wins and “only” 10 of 27 Crane players making the cut (that’s not a sarcastic comment, that actually is a slower pace on both fronts than the 50% of wins and 45% of players making the cut we had in the first three weeks).
In the “faint praise” side of things, Crab improved their showing by having … a Crab player make the cut. Mantis slid a little, but remain well ahead of Crab.
You may recall that last week I did not include the Tulsa Kotei data. This week it is included, at least to the extent available. I only have the T8, and the cut would have been bigger than that, but I’ve gone ahead at just done the Tulsa figures based on that data.
| Ivory Edition | ||||||
| Players | % of Field | Made Cut | Won | % Made Cut | Relative Chance of Making Cut | |
| Crab | 51 | 9.4% | 4 | 7.8% | 0.37 | |
| Crane | 106 | 19.5% | 46 | 7 | 43.4% | 2.03 |
| Dragon | 62 | 11.4% | 14 | 1 | 22.6% | 1.06 |
| Lion | 69 | 12.7% | 15 | 2 | 21.7% | 1.02 |
| Mantis | 53 | 9.8% | 7 | 13.2% | 0.62 | |
| Phoenix | 37 | 6.8% | 6 | 16.2% | 0.76 | |
| Scorpion | 61 | 11.2% | 15 | 3 | 24.6% | 1.15 |
| Spider | 41 | 7.6% | 7 | 17.1% | 0.80 | |
| Unicorn | 63 | 11.6% | 16 | 2 | 25.4% | 1.19 |
| 543 | 130 | 23.9% | 0.32 | |||
Make the Cut Rankings
1 ) Crane – 43%
2 ) Unicorn – 25%
3 ) Scorpion – 25%
4 ) Dragon – 23%
5 ) Lion – 22%
AVERAGE (per Clan) – 21%
6 ) Spider – 17%
7 ) Phoenix – 16%
8 ) Mantis – 13%
9 ) Crab – 8%
As usual, you can also find below an estimate of the Renewal points accumulated so far (based on the what has been posted about the tournaments through the time of this post), and a projection of what sort of numbers that might translate to if the season continued as it has. Note that this is a super-simplistic projection, with no attempts to gauge the likelihood of things continuing as they have, and without any adjustments for things like expected attendance at various Kotei.
| Players | Awards | Total | Projected | |
| Crab | 61 | 13 | 74 | 311 |
| Crane | 118 | 150 | 268 | 1126 |
| Dragon | 68 | 30 | 98 | 412 |
| Lion | 77 | 30 | 107 | 449 |
| Mantis | 57 | 15 | 72 | 302 |
| Phoenix | 42 | 9 | 51 | 214 |
| Scorpion | 63 | 42 | 105 | 441 |
| Spider | 45 | 29 | 74 | 311 |
| Unicorn | 68 | 34 | 102 | 428 |
I do hope that at least the attendance picks up enough for some Clans to hit the 500 point figure. It’s going to be a pretty sad set of storyline results if the most that most Clans achieve is “win a duel” or “take a hostage.”
Calgary. from the Dragon winners kotei report, he actually lost his top 4 round comprehensively to a Crane player, who then had to drop to catch his ride back to USA. So if the guy haddnt had transport issues it would have been 2 out of 3 crane wins for the weekend
The Crane player was PDT member Randy Green. While I believe everyone there would have been fine with him winning, as they know it’s not “advanced knowledge” but rather insane play skill that gets him there, I don’t think he wanted to eliminate a friend, either. There are also many online who would be up in arms if a member of the PDT won a Kotei. That said, I’m fairly confident it would have been two Crane wins.