Greetings, Rokugani!

Here we are, eight weeks into the Spring Kotei Season and three weeks into the 20 Festivals environment. We’re starting to build up enough data that we can really look into the performance of individual clans and begin to see how 20 Festivals is altering the environment. If you want to check out the raw data for the 2015 Spring Kotei Season, you can always find it here.

But if you want an overview of how the clans are doing this season, look at the chart below! I think most of the data types are pretty straight forward with the exception of “Rel Odds”. This is the relative odds of a clan making it past the cut. If all the clans were perfectly balanced, then the percentage of a clan in the post-cut environment should be the same as the pre-cut environment. As in, clans should make the cut (and win!) according to how many players showed up to represent their clan. If that was the case, their relative odds would be 1. Numbers above 1 indicate that they are over-represented post cut, and numbers below that they are under-represented.

Remember that the chart above includes all of the 2015 Spring Kotei events thus far. And that means that it encompasses four different possible sets of cards (Ivory Strict, Ivory Arc, 20 Festivals Strict and 20 Festivals Arc). It’s very difficult to make any sort of concrete statements about how clans are doing with this data, so the chart below is the same information, but it only includes events that were 20 Festivals Arc format. However, I have included data from a tournament recently held online using Sun and Moon. What? That’s not a Kotei, why would I include that information?! Well, the first reason is that we haven’t had that many 20 Festivals Arc events, and so our sample size is still small enough that I want to seek out other relevant sources of information. The second reason is that it was a very large event – at 43 participants, it is tied for the second largest 20 Festivals Arc event thus far! Larger events tend to have more stiff competition and so the decks that make it past the cut and win these events are a bit more representative of the larger environment. So while it may not be a Kotei (and the poor Phoenix player who won didn’t get to save an icon for their clan), it does shed light on the performance of individual clans in the post 20 Festivals environment. If you are interested, you can find the Sun and Moon tournament data in the link above in the “Other Events” tab. Without further ado, here is our 20 Festivals Arc chart:

So what do all of these numbers mean? Well, it may be a bit premature to come to solid conclusions, but below are some general observations that I pull from these numbers for each clan:

Crab – The most striking feature here is that they have had the lowest over all attendance, and lowest 20F Arc attendance. Despite this, they’ve been doing a great job making the cut and are consequently over represented in the post-cut group. Having said this, the total number of clan decks post-cut is low or average relative to the other clans because of their extremely low attendance. However, it is hard for Crab players to complain currently since they have won one event (something that not every clan can say), and they have 2 saved icons. Given how the Spider and Crab feel about each other, it is a minor miracle that a Crab icon hasn’t been corrupted yet (a fact undoubtedly due in part to a donation from the Scorpion treasury…).

Crane – Crane are in an interesting position as they are very under-represented in the cut (although this was more true in the Ivory events than in 20F), but they have the distinction of being tied for first place with the Mantis for most Kotei wins. What sets them apart is that they dominate nearly every event where they make it past the cut (5 out of 7!). So while they may not be making the cut very often, they sure are winning a lot! While most of these wins were from military decks, at least one was an honor deck, demonstrating that the Crane still have multiple strong decks at their disposal. I think it is safe to expect them to continue to be a powerful force in the 20 Festivals environment.

Dragon – Although they came out of the gate strong with a win in the first week (and with a somewhat unconventional deck!), and continued to consistently get players past the cut, the clan has really struggled in 20 Festivals. Their relative odds of getting past the cut has dropped to 0.70 – over all they aren’t doing too badly, but that has a lot to do with their strong performance in the Ivory Koteis. We will have to wait and watch to see what happens to the Dragon numbers. As players become more familiar with the current environment and card pool, their decks and strategies may become more streamlined.

Lion – Speaking of clans who haven’t won a Kotei… 20 Festivals has not been kind to the Lion. Their attendance is down, and their odds of getting past the cut are significantly down. Perhaps players have been switching from the traditional rush deck to a new Lion dueling deck? Whatever the explanation, Lion looks to be struggling, and 20F hasn’t done much to help them out. This is something of a problem story-wise since the Crane players seem out for Lion blood (they’ve “saved” two Lion icons in a hostile manner thus far), and the Lion are in a position where it will be very difficult for them to respond in kind.

Mantis – What can be said of the Mantis? They’ve won 5 Koteis and managed to start a war with the Scorpion clan all in the span of a few short weeks. They dominated the Ivory events in a very thorough way, but they’ve seen their progress stymied in 20 Festivals (much to the relief of the rest of the clans). In 20 Festivals, they’ve been doing a pretty average job of getting past the cut, but there are so many Mantis players that they are the second most common clan present in the post-cut group! One of their victories was after the release of 20 Festivals, demonstrating that the Mantis magic isn’t over just yet, but at least there appears to be enough answer cards available to the other clans that the Mantis are no longer dominating.

Phoenix – The Phoenix Clan find themselves in an interesting position. Over all, they are making the cut about average (odds ratio of 1.05), but nearly all of that is due to their success in the 20 Festivals tournaments. Currently, nearly a quarter of decks that make it past the cut are Phoenix decks. That’s pretty incredible, especially when you consider how much trouble the Phoenix were having in Ivory. Guess that new honor/recursion stronghold really helped out…. What is perhaps most amazing about the Phoenix is that they are dominating the post-cut group, but have yet to win a Kotei (the single win listed on the chart above is from the Sun and Moon online event), and thus are the only clan with no icons saved! (Correction – the Spider also have no saved icons, but they’ve been busy corrupting the rest of the empire.) But when you are making the cut in the sorts of numbers that the Phoenix currently have, it is only a matter of time before they make their mark on the winner board. I expect that we’ll see a number of saved Phoenix icons in short order.

Scorpion – The Scorpion clan is something of a dark mirror of the Crab clan in regards to their Kotei experience. They have exceptionally low attendance numbers, but combat this with quality decks that make the cut far more often than expected. Their over all numbers post-cut are low, but this is due mostly to their low attendance. They’ve also pulled off two wins (both in 20 Festivals Arc events), which places them in second place in terms of events won. Appropriately enough, they’ve mostly decided to spend their icon saves consolidating their own power and striking back at the Mantis. The sudden war between the Mantis and Scorpion is one of the highlight of this Kotei Season. Of course, the Crab Clan would like to remind them that their actions have left the Second Wall undefended….

Spider – Another clan that is hard to judge from the numbers, Spider have the second highest attendance over all and post 20 Festivals! That is pretty incredible given their very low attendance just last year; clearly there are a lot of players who are excited about where the Spider are currently (or perhaps they just want the chance to corrupt icons…). However, the Spider have struggled to make it past the cut (odds ratio of 0.67), but they are present, and in higher numbers than in 2014. They’ve also managed their first win of the season (more than the entire 2014 Season put together), and they immediately seized on their unique storyline choice of corrupting icons. As a Crab player, I really don’t want the Spider to win any more events (as I assume we’re next on the menu), but from a story perspective, I’m really hoping they get the chance to corrupt some more icons. It should be great to see what the consequences of those decisions will be!

Unicorn – We finally get the clan hit hardest by 20 Festivals. Their attendance has dropped even more than the Lion’s and their chance of making it past the cut has plummeted. Thus far, they make up less than 5% of the post-cut environment. It is a sad state of affairs for a clan that won 16 (or 26%) of the events last year. Again, we will have to wait and see what happens to the Unicorn as players become more familiar with the new 20 Festivals environment and card pool.

That’s all my general comments for now. Expect more data and analysis in the coming weeks! Make sure you attend to your local Kotei, and enjoy each and every one of your L5R games. Oh, and maybe make yourself some popcorn to snack on while you watch the Mantis / Scorpion conflict.