Clan Tourney Success in Spring Kotei Season 2015 #6

“Finally, it’s happened to me …”

Last week I said that the tournaments were mostly something of a continuation of existing trends, and that seems to be even more true this weekend (although that is, to some extent, to be expected, since we’re now reaching an amount of data that provides a somewhat more thorough, global perspective of the environment). The top three Clans prior to this weekend at making the cut – Phoenix, Mantis, and Scorpion – remained the top three. Mantis added another two wins to its tally (making 5 out of 13), and Phoenix finally picked up a win to go with its top-flight ability to make the cut.

On the lower end, the bottom two Clans (Dragon and Spider) sunk further into the dumps, with neither Clan placing a single player in the cut in the three tournaments this weekend.

There was some shifting around in the middle. Lion and Unicorn, although yet to pick up Kotei wins in this environment (Unicorn has won before this season, but not in 20F Arc play), both had enough players in the cut to improve their overall rates. Meanwhile, Crab has, after a decent early start, swapped places with Unicorn (who had a lousy early start).

The Twenty Festivals Arc environment has, to all appearances, shaken out to be substantially less balanced than many of us thought it would be. Although there is no Clan that has anywhere near the dominance that Crane did at the beginning of Ivory Arc, the overall environment is in some ways less balanced than the pre-errata Ivory Arc environment (0.36 v. 0.30), with three Clans (Mantis, Phoenix, Scorpion) seeming a clear head-and-shoulders above anyone else, with another couple of Clans (Spider, Dragon) seeming a clear step below everyone else, with terrible rates of making the cut (for example, Emperor Edition was generally considered an era of very poor Spider decks, and both Spider and Dragon are doing worse so far in this environment than Spider ever did then). It is also a more problematic sort of imbalance in terms of how to address it, if it is the sort of thing that one wants to address. Unlike last year, where there was one clear busted deck that could be taken out with errata, there is no single target here.

20F Arc
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 36 8.4% 5 1 13.9% 0.69
Crane 46 10.8% 9 2 19.6% 0.97
Dragon 48 11.2% 5 10.4% 0.52
Lion 43 10.1% 8 18.6% 0.92
Mantis 61 14.3% 19 5 31.1% 1.54
Phoenix 53 12.4% 18 1 34.0% 1.68
Scorpion 39 9.1% 11 3 28.2% 1.40
Spider 53 12.4% 5 1 9.4% 0.47
Unicorn 48 11.2% 8 16.7% 0.82
427 88 13 20.6% 0.36

Making the Cut Rankings
1: Phoenix – 34%
2: Mantis – 31%
3: Scorpion – 28%
AVERAGE (per clan) – 20%
4: Crane – 20%
5: Lion – 19%
6: Unicorn – 17%
7: Crab – 14%
8: Dragon – 10%
9: Spider – 9%

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