Clan Tourney Success in Spring Kotei Season 2015 #3

For our purposes there has been only one more Kotei since the update last week (there were two Kotei last weekend, but one was Twenty Festivals Strict, and so isn’t included in this particular batch of data). That might not seem like much of a change, but since the data set wasn’t exactly large to begin with, that one more Kotei is almost  a 30% increase in the number of data points.

As expected, some of the more extreme variances moved towards the mean – the Scorpion moved down, the Unicorn moved up, etc. Overall the variance of the environment dropped from 0.4 to 0.28, a pretty big move. Out of seven Kotei in this environment, six different Clans have picked up wins.

20F Arc
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 13 6.7% 4 1 30.8% 1.36
Crane 20 10.4% 4 1 20.0% 0.89
Dragon 26 13.5% 5 19.2% 0.85
Lion 17 8.8% 3 17.6% 0.78
Mantis 30 15.5% 7 1 23.3% 1.03
Phoenix 27 14.0% 8 29.6% 1.31
Scorpion 17 8.8% 6 2 35.3% 1.56
Spider 24 12.4% 4 1 16.7% 0.74
Unicorn 19 9.8% 2 10.5% 0.47
193 43 22.3% 0.28

Making the Cut Rankings
1: Scorpion – 35%
2: Crab – 31%
3: Phoenix – 30%
4: Mantis – 23%
AVERAGE (per Clan) – 23%
5: Crane – 20%
6: Dragon – 20%
7: Lion – 18%
8: Spider – 17%
9: Unicorn – 11%

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