Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #8

Only two Kotei this weekend, and both of them on the small side, so the data hasn’t moved too terribly much since last week. So I’ll use that lack of data as my excuse for not including a specific post-errata table yet, although really it’s just as much because a recent update to WordPress broke its ability to past tables directly from a spreadsheet program, which makes each one I throw in more of a pain. After a bit of a post-errata hot start, Crane are now below average since the hammer fell. Unicorn doing really well (making the cut better than Crane was doing, pre-errata; just not winning all of their games in the elims after that). Crab and Mantis up quite a bit. Dragon continue to be unable to convert making the cut into winning tournaments.

Ivory Edition
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 110 9.1% 22 0 20.0% 0.86
Crane 215 17.7% 84 15 39.1% 1.69
Dragon 134 11.0% 34 1 25.4% 1.09
Lion 154 12.7% 31 4 20.1% 0.87
Mantis 116 9.6% 19 1 16.4% 0.71
Phoenix 108 8.9% 14 0 13.0% 0.56
Scorpion 143 11.8% 37 4 25.9% 1.12
Spider 101 8.3% 18 0 17.8% 0.77
Unicorn 132 10.9% 41 5 31.1% 1.34
1213 300 24.7% 0.27

Make the Cut Rankings (full Ivory)
1 ) Crane – 39%
2 ) Unicorn – 31%
3 ) Scorpion – 26%
4 ) Dragon – 25%
AVERAGE (per clan) – 23%
5 ) Lion – 20%
6 ) Crab – 20%
7 ) Spider – 18%
8 ) Mantis – 16%
9 ) Phoenix – 13%

And here’s the estimated current standings (things known to be missing include some of the T8 players and one of the honor winners) and the projections for the Renewal results (as always, these are just straightforward based on results, no adjustments for things like expected size of past and future Kotei).

Clan Players Awards Total Projected
Crab 110 42 152 319
Crane 215 253 456 958
Dragon 134 55 189 397
Lion 154 79 233 489
Mantis 116 32 147 309
Phoenix 108 24 132 277
Scorpion 143 89 232 487
Spider 101 39 140 294
Unicorn 132 97 229 481

One thing you may note is that pretty much everybody went down. Small Kotei will do that, because so many of the potential points are from attendance.

5 thoughts on “Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #8

  1. You don’t happen to have figures for ‘post errata’ making the cut, do you? That analysis might be interesting. Thanks!

    1. Make the Cut rates for post-errata: Crab 36%, Crane 26%, Dragon 30%, Lion 17%, Mantis 27%, Phoenix 8%, Scorpion 26%, Spider 21%, Unicorn 52%. Average rate of making the cut in this time frame is 27%. Unicorn post-errata relative chance of making cut is 1.93, the pre-errata Crane number was 1.92.

  2. I’d wager that Unicorn being “busted” is for the same reason that Crane was: their SH is essentially doing what Crane’s was doing with the Akagi Sensei, both in terms of gold production and movement. The only difference is that Unicorn don’t go first as much. Which might explain why they are not as good after making the cut.

Leave a Reply