We’ve got a large batch of Kotei to kick things off for the Coming Storm environment, with seven tournaments held and all of them reporting (as always, we’re missing a few data points for the Renewal storyline, but all of the metagame statistics are intact).
Seven Kotei, and five different Clans won, so those are some reasonably good top-line figures. Better yet, they included a Phoenix win, two Dragon wins, and not a swarm of crushing dishonor decks (although 3 Crane/Unicorn wins probably isn’t as change of pace as one might like). If you dig to the “make the cut” number it continues to look pretty good for Unicorn/Crane, and also for Lion. But, of course, for all of these figures, there is a massive proviso that we’re still only looking at 291 data points. So we can expect some of those to smooth out a little. Not that we’re going to have any sort of large data set on the TCS environment before GenCon, given that there are only 13 TCS-legal Kotei (which means that this weekend has more than half of them).
|The Coming Storm|
|Clan||Players||% of Field||Made Cut||Won||% Made Cut||Relative Chance of Making Cut|
On the storyline front, we’ve got this (which, of course, does still include all of the points from earlier in the season; they don’t stop counting just because another set became legal):
And … not a lot of change. Just too far into the season for big swings in the projections. Biggest change was the projection for Crane dropping by 39 points despite two wins (they did not pick up their frequent plethora of honor contest wins, and Kotei size matters a lot). Although the Unicorn have now actually crossed 500, rather than just being projected to cross it, that wasn’t really in any doubt. Biggest prize that remains up in the air is whether Scorpion will nail down that 500 point haul (for a complete victory of some sort), followed by whether Crane can “upgrade” its complete victory to a daimyo/clan champ kill (I still like the 500 points prize better, but then most players are far more enamored of killing characters than I am). With everyone crossing at least 250, most of the ‘up in the air’ left is whether some Clans will be able to get a 250 point and a 100 point prize (or a second 100 point prize, assuming you’re allowed to get two).
Just for giggles, I thought I’d go back to the very first Renewal point projections, and see how much they had changed over the course of 14 weeks.
Crane: -332 (what, errata matters?)
Lion: -79 (they have slid as the season went on; and that’s a big 79 since it crosses to the wrong side of 500)
Mantis: +31 (let’s call it the “Abbott factor”)
Phoenix: +255 (because Phoenix players actually showed up after week 1)
So, pretty big changes for several Clans. On the other hand, of the three really big changes, two were pretty easily predictable – Crane was not going to be allowed to continue on that pace, and Phoenix weren’t going to continue to be completely absent from the tournament scene. A surge in the better decks was predictable after the Crane errata (as was, potentially, a drop in Lion as it no longer got to exercise its “Crane go second to me” privileges as often), but the massive surge for Unicorn was not something I would have expected. Given the really small amount of data from just one week, I’m surprised at how relatively little the projections have shifted from then until now.