Clan Tourney Success in Kotei Season 2014 #13

Four Kotei this weekend, but a relatively low number of new data points for the number of Kotei, as three of those four had fairly low turnout (including at least one with attendance that was drastically down from its prior year showings). The four Kotei were won by Crane, Scorpion and Unicorn (twice), and I am guessing that your responses to that range from “well, duh” to “shouldn’t one of those have been Mantis?” Those clans are also the four that are above average at making the cut.

Here’s the table for after the Crane errata:

Ivory Edition (post Crane errata)
Clan Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 98 9.4% 25 1 25.5% 0.96
Crane 156 14.9% 54 4 34.6% 1.30
Dragon 111 10.6% 28 0 25.2% 0.95
Lion 115 11.0% 22 2 19.1% 0.72
Mantis 106 10.1% 30 6 28.3% 1.06
Phoenix 106 10.1% 22 1 20.8% 0.78
Scorpion 131 12.5% 37 2 28.2% 1.06
Spider 98 9.4% 15 0 15.3% 0.57
Unicorn 126 12.0% 54 10 42.9% 1.61
Total/Average 1047 100.0% 287 26 27.4% 0.23

And here’s for the whole Kotei season:

Ivory Edition
Clan Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 183 9.2% 38 1 20.8% 0.84
Crane 328 16.4% 127 17 38.7% 1.57
Dragon 218 10.9% 54 1 24.8% 1.00
Lion 239 12.0% 48 5 20.1% 0.81
Mantis 196 9.8% 42 6 21.4% 0.87
Phoenix 189 9.5% 34 1 18.0% 0.73
Scorpion 236 11.8% 64 5 27.1% 1.10
Spider 180 9.0% 29 0 16.1% 0.65
Unicorn 231 11.6% 81 13 35.1% 1.42
Total/Average 2000 100.0% 517 49 25.9% 0.24

Of course, there’s also the Renewal storyline event, where we don’t see a terrible lot of movement from week to week anymore, now that we’re almost at 50 completed Kotei out of 62 or 63 (these projections still assume 63, but at this point I’m guessing that the Moscow Kotei just isn’t happening, which will shave a few points off of everyone).

Clan Players Awards Total Projected
Crab 183 70 253 325
Crane 328 323 651 837
Dragon 218 84 302 388
Lion 239 110 349 449
Mantis 196 99 295 379
Phoenix 189 51 240 309
Scorpion 236 149 385 495
Spider 180 68 248 319
Unicorn 231 192 423 544

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