Kotei 2013: Clan Tourney Success and Story Update #4

Another weekend, another complete set of data for the statistics! Feeding Hills remains the only Kotei we’re lacking complete data from.

Another great weekend for Phoenix, as they pick up another two wins and continue to be all over the place in the cut. Also still great for the Mantis, who picked up another win – the Mantis continue to be better at making the cut and are the most common clan in the elimination rounds, but they aren’t as good as winning once they get there. The Crab didn’t so anything remarkable this weekend, but still have a big presence, and the Unicorn are starting to hit their stride.

But what happened to the Lion? Two wins the first weekend, and off to a good start, but they’ve just bottomed out. They are missing what might be their best tournament (Feeding Hills), but that’s still quite the drop.

Torn Asunder
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 103 12.5% 29 2 28.2% 38.9%
Crane 70 8.5% 9 12.9% -36.6%
Dragon 75 9.1% 19 25.3% 25.0%
Lion 103 12.5% 12 2 11.7% -42.5%
Mantis 97 11.8% 27 1 27.8% 37.3%
Phoenix 110 13.4% 25 5 22.7% 12.1%
Scorpion 89 10.8% 13 2 14.6% -27.9%
Spider 70 8.5% 11 1 15.7% -22.5%
Unicorn 68 8.3% 16 2 23.5% 16.1%
Unaligned 37 4.5% 8 21.6%
822 169 20.5% 28.8%

1 ) Crab – 28%
2 ) Mantis – 28%
3 ) Dragon – 25%
4 ) Unicorn – 24%
5 ) Phoenix – 23%
5a ) Unaligned (Ronin, Shadowlands, Imperial) – 22%
6 ) Spider – 16%
7 ) Scorpion – 15%
8 ) Crane – 13%
9 ) Lion – 12%

And, of course, there’s the clan-on-clan violence in the T16 and beyond. Results in the  season ended now would be:

Crab takes a location from Phoenix (5 victories).

Crane takes a location from Crab/Dragon/Unicorn (1 victory).

Dragon takes a location from Mantis (2 victories).

Lion takes a location from Phoenix (5 victories).

Mantis takes a location from Lion/Phoenix (3 victories).

Phoenix takes a location from Crab (9 victories).

Scorpion takes a location from Crab/Lion (2 victories).

Spider takes a location from Phoenix (2 victories).

Unicorn takes a location from Mantis (4 victories).

So, some important lessons here. First, don’t lose in the elims to Crane, because that one loss might cost your Clan a territory. Second, if you’re Mantis or Dragon, don’t think those losses to the Phoenix don’t matter – they’ve beaten the Crab 9 times, but they’ve beaten Mantis and Dragon 8 times each.

What about matchups? Based on what is, still, a very small data pool, what are the win percentages on the most common matchups? Let’s say that more than 5 games counts as “common” (hint: that’s really not a lot of games).

Phoenix over Crab – 65% (9-5)
Lion over Phoenix – 62.5% (5-3)
Phoenix over Mantis – 73% (8-3)
Phoenix over Dragon – 89% (8-1)
Phoenix over Unicorn – 62.5% (5-3)
Unicorn over Mantis – 67% (4-2)

Look, there’s a whole one matchup in there that doesn’t involve the Phoenix!

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