Coils of Madness Clan Tourney Success #3

With GenCon now in the books, we’ve got additional data on the Coils of Madness environment. This is the first post with this title, but it’s labeled #3 because the last couple of 2013 Kotei season posts were in the Coils of Madness environment as well. As usual, I’m not resetting the statistics just because new promos have come into legality, but keep in mind that several pairs of promos have been rolling into legality and, more significantly, the Kotei 2013 promo pack was legal for GenCon.

The GenCon results we have include only the main event and second chance – the invitational and grinder information will be added when/if it becomes available (same with additional/updated main event/second chance info).

The GenCon results further emphasized how imbalanced Emperor Edition has become. 24 players made the elims between the main event and the second chance event. Of those 24, 18 were Mantis/Phoenix/Crab. Another three were Unaligned (including the main event winner, who was playing semi-faceless Imperial honor).

There are a couple of things to keep in mind with this data. The first is the general note that at GenCon/Euros, more than other tournaments, clan participation is skewed by perceived deck strength. So, for example, there were only 15 Crane/Dragon/Scorpion/Spider players out of 97 at the main event at GenCon – this means that, although those clans placed zero players in the elimination rounds, the effect on their “make the cut” rate is not as much as it would have been with a more normal representation of 9-10 players per clan (Lion, on the other hand, had lots of players and only put one in the elims, so they took a bath).

The second is that there is a big break between the two environments with regards to two Clans, which I’m inclined to chalk up to aberrations in the late-season Kotei data. Crab, particularly Crab Berserkers, was very successful at GenCon, but Crab had for reasons unknown performed dismally in the last few Kotei weekends. The relative numbers of players involved means that the overall “make the cut” rate for Crab is still below average, despite their excellent performance at GenCon. The flipside of that is the Dragon, who managed to do well in the last few weekends of Kotei season, defying expectations, only to have almost no one play Dragon at GenCon (7 between the main and second chance events) – so the Dragon seem to have an abnormally high cut rate.

Coils of Madness
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Relative Chance of Making Cut
Crab 76 10.7% 11 1 14.5% -20.5%
Crane 44 6.2% 6 13.6% -25.1%
Dragon 68 9.6% 16 1 23.5% 29.2%
Lion 78 11.0% 9 2 11.5% -36.7%
Mantis 100 14.0% 31 5 31.0% 70.2%
Phoenix 78 11.0% 24 2 30.8% 68.9%
Scorpion 70 9.8% 8 11.4% -37.3%
Spider 45 6.3% 5 1 11.1% -39.0%
Unicorn 73 10.3% 12 1 16.4% -9.7%
Unaligned 80 11.2% 18 1 22.5%
712 140 19.3% 37.4%

Make the Cut Rankings

1) Mantis – 31%
2) Phoenix – 31%
3) Dragon – 24%
3a) Unaliagned – 23%
4) Unicorn – 16%
5) Crab – 15%
6) Crane – 14%
7) Lion – 12%
8) Scorpion – 11%
9) Spider – 11%

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