We had three more Kotei this weekend, and have full results for two of them to add in (we need the full cut list for South Sioux City before it can be included; note that the winner for this tournament is included, because that doesn’t really interact with the rest of the stats). Spider players will probably be happy to see that their second-worst make the cut rate has down crossed the line down to “statistically significant” with a 95% confidence (although many folks would probably put this into the category of “telling me what I already know”).
Also, we’ve also had a couple of Kotei lately that didn’t follow the Floor Rules (either option), and I thought I should let you know how I handled those. The first was South Africa, which was run as an “X-2” cut with 5 rounds, except for that number of people, the “X-2” cut is actually supposed to be a cut to the 4-1 players. The Kotei instead cut to everyone who was 3-2 or better. However, we had who 4-1 players were after swiss, so the figures for the South Africa Kotei only count those three players as “making the cut.”
The second was the Moscow Kotei, which ran a 6-round Kotei and cut to four players. I’m not sure if they cut specifically to a T4, or cut to a certain record, but the combination of 6 rounds and a T4 doesn’t meet either option under the Floor Rules – a traditional format would have 6 rounds and cut to a T2, and an “X-2” cut would be fewer than 6 rounds of swiss. Since they played six rounds of swiss like the traditional cut, the players who I counted as “made the cut” for these figures are the T2 who would have made the cut under the traditional cut.
In both cases, the common solution that I employ is to use the players who would have made the cut, had the Floor Rules been followed, as this maintains consistency.
| Emperor Edition Environment | ||||||
| Players | % of Field | Made Cut | Won | % Made Cut | Chi-Square Standard Residual | |
| Crab | 261 | 15.0% | 77 | 7 | 29.5% | 2.90 |
| Crane | 142 | 8.1% | 15 | 0 | 10.6% | -2.76 |
| Dragon | 182 | 10.4% | 39 | 8 | 21.4% | 0.06 |
| Lion | 227 | 13.0% | 57 | 4 | 25.1% | 1.27 |
| Mantis | 175 | 10.0% | 36 | 4 | 20.6% | -0.19 |
| Phoenix | 180 | 10.3% | 43 | 2 | 23.9% | 0.78 |
| Scorpion | 214 | 12.3% | 42 | 3 | 19.6% | -0.51 |
| Spider | 156 | 8.9% | 21 | 1 | 13.5% | -2.10 |
| Unicorn | 183 | 10.5% | 35 | 3 | 19.1% | -0.62 |
| Unaligned | 24 | 1.4% | 1 | 4.2% | ||
| 1744 | 366 | 20.4% | 11.9 | |||
Make the Cut Rankings
1) Crab – 30%
2) Lion – 25%
3) Phoenix – 24%
4) Dragon – 21%
5) Mantis – 21%
AVERAGE – 20%
6) Scorpion – 20%
7) Unicorn – 19%
8 ) Spider – 14%
9) Crane – 11%
I ran a post cut per-clan vs. All else analysis over on the phoenix boards (fisher’s exact test). Dragon were border-line significant for winning once the cut has been made. As ever, there are two stories to understanding the kotei season overall…
So I guess that would indicate that Dragon is doing so well after the cut that it probably can’t be attributed to random chance… But then you have to wonder what the reason is. You would think it would have to mean that they have some very good matchups after the cut to top 8 compared to their general matchups versus the field, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out what matchups those are.
I could indicate a kind of consistency among the players or the decks or that the clan has some exceptional decks that are only part of the play pool. it probably doesn’t mean anything though.
Well, at least the next set has great cards for Crane and Spider…. oh. :-/
And, you know, not fantastic cards for Dragon kensai (the anti-Game of Sincerity card). I guess we should be happy that the Crab’s best cards are for Berserkers, and not scouts.
As unhappy as I am with the support given to the Crane and Spider (and I don’t generally think everything Spider got was bad, but alot of it doesn’t address the main issues those decks have, like Paragon having far too many people that lack proactive abilities/battle actions), Embers was probably well into testing before there was any real non-Playtest information on the EE environment. Playtest information, in the end, can’t give you everything you need.
Now, my concern here is, the DT has shown a really poor record of getting clans that are lacking up to speed. They are either too conservative, and the Clan suffer in the back for the entirety of the arc (see Spider in SE and Scorpion in CE), or they overcompensate and the clan becomes WAY too strong (see Crane in CE). Neither’s a good result.
If folks have other examples that disprove me, I’d love to hear them.
+1