Kotei 2012/Emperor Edition Meta-Game Update #14

The last Emperor Edition environment tournaments were held last weekend (Embers of War is legal starting this Saturday). Crane (aka David Winner) picked up a second win, Dragon got back on the board, and Lion almost caught up to Crab/Dragon. Spider have “beaten out” Crane for worst make the cut rate.

But this hopefully won’t be the very last update on the EE environment since there are still Kotei that we don’t have the full data on. So next Monday you should get a “Kotei 2012/Embers of War Meta-Game Update” and sometime in the next couple of weeks a final update on the EE environment.

You may note that there is again a final entry in the chi-squared standard residual column. You may also note that it’s a lot higher than the last time it appeared, even though the proportions of the raw data aren’t that much different. When doing the chi-square values for the individual clans, I was running the numbers comparing raw expected values vs. actual values. But when running the numbers for everything as a whole, I was comparing expected make the cut rate v. actual make the cut rate for each clan. It doesn’t seem like a great idea to have those two inconsistently calculated, since the resulting chi-square values are substantially different. Using the percentages produced a much smaller value (in this update, by a factor of almost 2).

Regardless, still keep in mind that because the final number has a different number of degrees of freedom, it becomes statistically significant at a different and higher value (3.95 instead of 1.96).

Emperor Edition Environment
Players % of Field Made Cut Won % Made Cut Chi-Square Standard Residual
Crab 409 14.2% 112 9 27.4% 2.73
Crane 244 8.5% 34 2 13.9% -2.46
Dragon 317 11.0% 70 10 22.1% 0.35
Lion 359 12.5% 91 8 25.3% 1.72
Mantis 293 10.2% 61 6 20.8% -0.13
Phoenix 308 10.7% 69 3 22.4% 0.47
Scorpion 371 12.9% 76 5 20.5% -0.29
Spider 250 8.7% 33 1 13.2% -2.74
Unicorn 283 9.8% 54 5 19.1% -0.76
Unaligned 41 1.4% 2 4.9%
2875 602 20.5% 5.00

Make the Cut Ranks
1) Crab – 27%
2) Lion – 25%
3) Phoenix – 22%
4) Dragon – 22%
5) Mantis – 21%
6) Scorpion – 21%
AVERAGE – 21%
7) Unicorn – 19%
8 ) Crane 14%
9) Spider 13%

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